Oxford Analytica (part of FiscalNote)

The fourth edition of our LinkedIn newsletter is out! This month, we ask how organizations can achieve net-zero when the path to a net-zero economy is paved with uncertainties. Read our article to find out 👇 And don’t forget to sign up to Oxford Analytica Insights, to get each edition directly to your inbox! #energytransition #netzero

We spent an excellent few days last week presenting to Oxford Analytica and FiscalNote clients in New York and Washington, D.C. Our Director of Analysis Nicholas Redman, joined by colleagues from FiscalNote, FrontierView (part of FiscalNote) and Oxford Analytica, shared insights on wide-ranging topics including the outlook for Ukraine, the Middle East, and European politics, as well as Pacific perspectives on the upcoming US election.  Great to catch up with senior executives, policy-makers, and thought leaders to discuss the many crucial developments impacting major economies into 2025. #geopolitics #USelection #MiddleEast #Ukraine #Europeanpolitics #planning2025

Turkey’s electric vehicle (EV) sector will grow slowly. The government is prioritizing protecting domestic vehicle production and exports over promoting electric vehicle use. What next: ➡ EV and charging station numbers will continue to rise, but the rate of growth will flatten out. ➡ Ankara may add further restrictions on EV and hybrid imports, especially those from China, in order to protect Turkey’s domestic automotive sector. ➡ It will also attempt to induce Turkey’s existing international vehicle manufacturers to move EV production to Turkey, and persuade East Asian EV manufacturers to invest in new production facilities in the country. Read our full analysis of the Turkish EV market and growth projections, and then sign up for a free trial of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief 👉: https://lnkd.in/eHdXCunT #Turkey #TurkeyEVsector #Turkeyautomotive #energytransition #netzero #geopoliticsofenergy

Budget austerity will limit global spending and growth. All economies are being advised to strengthen their budgets, but this risks reducing spending on much needed reforms. Impacts: 👉 Uncertainties are high but financial volatility is sub-trend, hinting markets may be underpricing the impacts of wars and trade disputes. 👉 Members’ IMF contributions will rise by 50%, but there will be little progress on raising Global South voting shares relative to the West. 👉 Monetary policy divergence raises risks; China is cutting fast, Western countries are cutting at different paces and Japan is raising rates. 👉 World trade is growing at about 3% and is unlikely to pick up much next year; indeed it could slow, whatever the US election outcome. Keep informed of the latest developments by subscribing to our Geopolitical Outlook - a fortnightly summary of key intelligence reports, brought to you by FiscalNote Global Intelligence, and featuring insights from Oxford Analytica, Dragonfly and FrontierView. Subscribe now 👉: https://lnkd.in/eb4WXMBg #Globaleconomy #worldtrade #IMF #budgetausterity #geopolitics #planning2025

On September 9, Saudi Arabia reopened its embassy in Damascus after first re-establishing diplomatic relations in 2023. This marked another step forward on Syria’s pathway to normalising its relations with the Gulf states and the wider Arab world. What are the prospects for success? See our quote of the week 👇 Subscribers can then access our full analysis of Syria’s position here: https://lnkd.in/eT7VScyU Or to access this and a wealth of timely, impartial and actionable analysis of emerging trends and developments, delivered every working day, register for a trial of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief : https://lnkd.in/g7Jitf7y #Syria #SyriaIran #Gulfstates #SaudiArabiaSyria #geopolitics

Serbia will look to become a regional gas transit hub. Belgrade’s plan to expand Serbia’s gas pipeline network to all neighboring states is proceeding apace. Impacts: ➡ Although Serbia will seek to diversify gas imports, it is unlikely to wean itself off Russian gas in the near term. ➡ As its gas supply contract with Gazprom expires in March 2025, Belgrade will look to extend the deal until 2028 under the same terms. ➡ Belgrade wants to ensure that Serbia continues to have one of the lowest gas prices in Europe, which bolsters economic growth. ➡ The planned gas interconnection with the Republika Srpska may face setbacks over internal disagreements in Bosnia-Hercegovina’s government. Interested in finding out more? Receive timely summaries of key intelligence reports covering the latest global issues by subscribing to our Geopolitical Outlook – delivered direct to your inbox every fortnight: https://lnkd.in/eb4WXMBg #Serbia #Serbiagas #geopolitics #planning2025

Since 2018, Washington has placed increasing restrictions on Chinese technology, intended to limit its own vulnerability to cybersecurity threats and to curb China’s development. But China’s key role in the global electronics supply chain challenges Washington’s efforts. What next? ➡ China’s trading relations, technological strengths and market size will enable it to expand technology exports to third countries despite increased US restrictions.  ➡ Chinese components will also be present in many tech devices in the United States that are assembled elsewhere.  ➡ Consequently, the potential US cybersecurity vulnerability to China will not easily be mitigated, at least by current policies. Read our full analysis of China’s role in the global electronics supply chain 👉. And then sign up for a free trial of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief to access daily insights into emerging trends and developments in the global political economy: https://lnkd.in/ePsTxC3Y #China #Chinatechnology #cybersecurity #USChina #deglobalization #geopolitics

*Webinar Thursday* - Regardless of who wins the upcoming US election, there is the possibility of post-election violence and discord; while fortunes for the real economy, and for the tech sector and tech regulation, will not quickly be altered by a change of government. Join us for a special webinar in which specialists from Oxford Analytica, Dragonfly (part of FiscalNote), and FrontierView (part of FiscalNote) will share their assessments for civil unrest, the US economy and US policy on the safe development of AI, following inauguration day. Find out more and reserve your spot here: https://lnkd.in/gt6XHuHR #USelection #US #securityintelligence #geopolitics

Republicans appear on course for a US Senate majority. The presidential race is close and control of the House uncertain, but Republicans are confident of a Senate majority. Impacts: ➡ West Virginia’s Senate seat is certain to flip from Democrat to Republican, and Montana looks set to provide a second Republican gain. ➡ Democrat Sherrod Brown is fighting a strong campaign to hold his Ohio seat but may ultimately lose, giving Republicans a third gain. ➡ Democratic Senate incumbents in three battleground states, and new Democratic candidates in two others, all have stronger leads than Harris. ➡ Democrats have claimed that Republican incumbents in Texas and Florida are now vulnerable, but both appear comfortably safe. Keep informed of the latest developments by subscribing to our Geopolitical Outlook - a fortnightly summary of key intelligence reports, brought to you by FiscalNote Global Intelligence, and featuring insights from Oxford Analytica, Dragonfly and FrontierView. Subscribe now 👉: https://lnkd.in/eb4WXMBg #USelection #USbattlegroundstates #TrumpHarris #geopolitics #planning2025

In a country of growing divisions, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump offer some distinctly different courses for the country. However, some aspects of US life can be anticipated regardless of who wins. In this webinar, our experts will discuss the most likely outcomes ahead, including: 👉 The possibility of civil unrest and extremist activity during the US presidential transition. 👉 The prospects for political polarization following inauguration day. 👉 The direction of US trade policy and its impact on the global economy. 👉 Major policy proposals from both candidates on tax, industrial policy, and more. 👉 The prospects for antitrust action on Big Tech. 👉 The direction of US policy on the safe development of AI. Don’t miss out on these essential insights. Register to join us now: https://lnkd.in/gt6XHuHR #USelection #HarrisTrump #USeconomy #planning2025