Terrain

The average price of a new tractor is outpacing inflation. In a new report, our senior rural economy analyst, Matt Clark, explains two methods he has devised to help farmers understand tractor efficiency and identify their window of opportunity to purchase. Listen to Matt explain his research in the video below 👇 (Link to report in the comments.) #FarmEquipment #FarmEconomy #NewIron

Specialty crop producers have experienced the post-pandemic economy very differently, our analyst Matt Woolf shared at last week's Western Colorado Horticultural Conference. Peaches and processing tomatoes have seen prices jump in recent years, for example, while nut crops have seen prices plummet. What all western specialty crop producers have experienced similarly are three particularly burdensome costs: water, regulatory compliance and labor. Check out Matt's latest insights for American AgCredit customers 👉 https://brnw.ch/21wQlbT #Agriculture #SpecialtyCrop #FarmCredit

Sure, the country saw good hay yields for 2024, but how does another metric — hay stocks-to-cow inventory — play into hay demand and price? "More important than hay production levels is the amount of hay on hand (or stocks) relative to the total cattle herd," writes Matt Clark, our senior rural economy analyst, in his Q1 2025 Hay Outlook. "Using beef and milk cow estimates from Terrain economists Dave Weaber and Ben Laine, I estimate that the December hay stocks-to-cow inventory will increase about 9% compared with a year ago because of declining beef cow numbers and increased hay stocks," he writes. "The relative ratio of hay stocks to cows would be the highest since 2016 and just above the 10-year average." Overall, Matt expects hay stocks and winter wheat acres to be adequate for cattle needs this winter, and hay prices may continue to reflect adequate supply. That's good news for the cattle and dairy customers of American AgCredit, Farm Credit Services of America and Frontier Farm Credit! Read the full Q1 2025 Hay Outlook 👉 https://brnw.ch/21wQj55 #Farming #Ranching #Cattle #Beef #Dairy #FarmCredit

Great discussions and meet-and-greets last week during our Farm Credit Services of America customer events in southeast Nebraska! Our Bree Baatz, MBA and Matt Clark delivered their insights on grain markets and the U.S. and farm economies. A few highlights: 🌽 U.S. producers have reasons to be optimistic on nearby future corn prices and the export sales pace, Bree says, as more countries are buying U.S. corn this year, and global supply continues to tighten relative to demand. ↗️ The U.S. economy is outpacing all other advanced economies. “It’s not even close," Matt says. 💲 The Federal Reserve is less likely to cut rates in 2025 to control inflation. “Inflation has remained sticky, so I would expect only one or two interest rate cuts in 2025," Matt adds. #Commodities #Corn #Soybeans #InterestRates #USEconomy #Inflation #FarmCredit

To help #wineries navigate the year ahead, our Chris Bitter will join other industry thought leaders on February 5 to share key #wine market predictions and trends. Register below for this free virtual session. 👇

When our analysts aren't behind their desks, they're on the road meeting with #FarmCredit customers and engaging in their industries. Here's a list of events they'll be attending in February. ✉️ Drop a comment or message if you'd like to meet with someone.

We appreciated the opportunity to present our walnut market insights at this week's North Valley Nut Conference. Matt Woolf, our specialty crop analyst, shared some good news with attendees: ↗️ The worst is indeed behind walnut growers, who have endured the industry's toughest years due to an oversupplied global market, pandemic-related shipping constraints, tariffs, and poor quality in the 2022 crop. 💲 Now, the industry is benefiting from a much-improved supply-demand balance, characterized by strong sales, reduced carry-in, and a short crop from Chile. Most importantly, this has resulted in prices that are significantly higher than in recent history. Read Matt's Q1 2025 Walnut Outlook for more market insights: https://brnw.ch/21wQ52r #CaliforniaWalnuts #CaliforniaAgriculture

"Under Terrain's base-case scenario of a resilient economy in 2025, I do expect to see some improvement in retail wine sales, particularly in the premium and luxury segments of the market." Watch our Chris Bitter recap his wine market outlook for 2025, featured in the Trending Topic section of the Winter 2024/2025 issue of Winescape®, a publication of American AgCredit 👇 (Link to report in the comments.) #WineIndustry #CaliforniaWine #WineSales #Economy

"Given the uncertainty on the trade front, ongoing challenges with avian influenza, and Federal Milk Marketing Order reform around the corner, risk management is important going into 2025," writes Ben Laine, our senior dairy analyst, in his Q1 2025 Outlook. He notes that the Dairy Margin Coverage milk margin above feed costs is expected to fall by 21% through the first half of 2025 to reach $12.31/cwt. Although this amount is above the maximum coverage of $9.50/cwt, "it signals the uncertainty ahead for milk prices and feed costs — which are also facing many of the same uncertainties on the trade and demand fronts." Read Ben's full outlook for more dairy market insights for Q1 and the year ahead 👉 https://brnw.ch/21wQ04r #Dairy #GlobalTrade #BirdFlu #FarmCredit

"Still recovering from 2023, the hog industry continues to slowly climb to a place with a better view," our senior animal protein analyst, Dave Weaber, writes in his Q1 2025 Pork Outlook. ⬆️ From a forecasting perspective, Dave notes that his Q1 price outlook is up from a year ago: "I expect that Q1 2025 prices for producer-sold barrows and gilts will range from near $81/cwt early on to $85/cwt to $87/cwt at quarter’s end." This puts the forecast quarterly average price for barrows and gilts in a range of $85/cwt to $87/cwt and nearly 10% above the average price achieved in Q1 2024. "Current projections for the quarter are for profits in the $7/head to $8/head range," he adds. Read the full Q1 2025 Pork Outlook for more price forecasts and market analysis: https://brnw.ch/21wPYjz #Agriculture #Pork #Hogs #FarmCredit