The Race to Artificial General Intelligence: How Human-Level AI will Transform our World by 2031

AI pioneers such as Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI), Yann LeCun (Chief AI Scientist at Meta), and Demis Hassabis (CEO of Google’s DeepMind) agree:

Within 5-10 years, we will have human-level AI, also known as AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).

What Is AGI and Why Does It Matter?

AGI represents the evolution of today’s Large Language Models (LLMs).

While these models are incredibly versatile, they are typically optimized for specific tasks, such as statistically predicting the most likely next word (e.g., transformers like GPT—Generative Pre-Trained Transformer).

Why 5-10 Years Feels Closer Than Ever

“In 5-10 years” is already much closer than other AI thinkers predicted just a few years ago.

Back then, they were talking about 10-50 years.

Since we can’t pinpoint “in 5-10 years” exactly, I interpret this personally as “in 6 years, i.e. 2031”—the year of my retirement. It’s easier for me to remember that way.

And yes, I am aware that AGI will not occur on a specific date, but gradually, especially as the definition of AGI is not razor-sharp anyway.

China’s Role in the Global AI Landscape

Given the rapid pace of development, I tend to expect such predictions—even those from experts—to come true closer to the earlier end of the timeline rather than the later.

One indicator is the number of patents: China files significantly more AI-related patents compared to American or European counterparts.

Since we are typically less familiar with the Chinese market than the American one, surprises are likely to come from there.

Take the latest, best video GenAI tool Hunyuan Large Model Video as the most recent example: It comes from Tencent, the Chinese e-commerce giant, and combines image and video generation in one tool.

It is therefore no longer necessary to jump back and forth between image generation in Midjourney and video generation in Runway ML.

AGI’s Arrival: Sooner, Global, and Multilingual

My interpretation:

• AGI is likely to arrive sooner rather than later—probably by 2031.
• AGI will be Chinese, hopefully with a good command of English.
• American and especially European AI providers are falling behind.
• Those who already learn Mandarin could have an advantage in the future.

Implications for the Next Generation

What this means for young professionals entering the workforce will be the subject of my next article.

ASI: The Next Frontier After AGI

Incidentally, after Artificial General Intelligence AGI comes ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence).

This refers to a system autonomously developed by AGI.

We have no way of knowing whether it will still be “programmed” or otherwise developed.

That will be up to the AGI or ASI, as wonderfully explained by Tim Urban in his article on Wait But Why: The AI Revolution.

Rethinking Creativity in the Age of AI

This also answers the question of whether AI is creative or not.

It is, of course, but at the same time, we need to rethink the definition of “creativity.”