ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Meet our Early Career Researcher Catherine Gregory! After studying business, travelling the world, and launching a gelato business in Chile, Catherine Gregory's love for the ocean and science led her back to Australia, where she is now pursuing a PhD on the predictability of marine heatwaves (read the full story here: https://lnkd.in/guaKR_eB). Growing up by the coast in Port Macquarie, Australia, Catherine has always loved the ocean. Her fascination with the ocean and science is evident when she talks about her childhood. “I grew up loving the beach and the ocean. I was there every chance I could get.” “At school, I was also fascinated by maths and science, but coming from a small town, I never really understood the sort of job opportunities that you could have in those fields. This is why I studied finance; it was the closest thing I could see to maths in a job.” Catherine completed an undergraduate degree in finance at RMIT University, after which she undertook a short internship at ANZ. While this work experience taught her some valuable skills, Catherine explained that it also made her realise that a career in banking was not for her. “At that point, I knew I wasn’t going to be a banker but I also didn’t know what my next steps would be, so I decided to go travelling and seek some inspiration.” “I ended up spending almost a year living on Hamilton Island on the Great Barrier Reef, working in hospitality. I then travelled to Africa to finally end up in Chile, where I opened a gelato store.” Catherine’s gelato business started off small, making ice cream for a few restaurants, but soon grew to include two stores and a mobile operation for festivals in the summer. “It was always sort of a dream of mine to make ice cream when I was younger. It’s sort of chemistry and mathematics combined; you have to balance sugars, fats and flavours.” Catherine explained that while the initial stages of starting a business were exciting and challenging, she soon found herself craving more intellectual stimulation, which led her to return to studying. “The ocean has always been a big part of my life, even when I was travelling, so I really wanted to study something marine-based.” Catherine completed a bachelor of marine science and mathematics at The Australian National University, followed by an honours at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), where she focused on marine heatwaves and global fisheries. After her studies, she decided to pursue a PhD at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and IMAS, where she is currently studying the predictability of marine heatwaves on a sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale. Read Catherine's full story here: https://lnkd.in/guaKR_eB University of Tasmania #marineheatwave #climatescience

In their new article published in PLOS Climate, Dr Negin Nazarian, Prof Melissa Hart, Prof Andrew Pitman, AO, FAA and their collaborators call for a better integration of urban climate research within the global climate change discourse.    Despite occupying only 1–3% of the land, urban areas are home to most of the world’s population and are responsible for ~70% of current greenhouse gas emissions. They therefore contribute significantly to climate change, while also being highly vulnerable to its effects.    With an additional 2.5 billion people expected to live in urban areas by 2050, the importance of cities in our climate change dialogue will become increasingly more significant.   Despite the vital role of cities, urban-scale climates are poorly represented in global climate modelling and observations. Urban climate research is also underrepresented in assessments of the physical basis of climate - the inclusion of cities was not formalised until the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014.   This has several consequences:    Failing to measure and understand climate processes at urban scales undermines the accuracy of climate assessments in cities. This means policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change may not account for the climate consequences experienced in cities. This also limits our ability to develop effective strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation, posing risks to the future resilience of societies. In their article, the authors highlight the IPCC Special Report on Cities & Climate Change, expected to be released in 2027, as a crucial opportunity to address these issues. This will mark the first time the IPCC has dedicated a coordinated effort focused on cities.   The authors call for the urban climate community to engage in strategic and coordinated planning to meet this historic opportunity. They identify three pivotal aspects that should be addressed and strengthened: 1. Prioritize urban-scale technological advancements, 2. Facilitate cross-disciplinary and cross-scale synergies, 3. Increase urban climate visibility and presence.   Read more here: https://lnkd.in/e9BDVeyi   ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes UNSW Climate Change Research Centre Winston Chow Gerald Mills Ariane Middel Scott Krayenhoff Dr. Gaby S. Langendijk Lei Zhao Benjamin Bechtel

📢 Please join us at the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk & Response 2024 Conference 🌍   We’re thrilled to announce that we will be hosting our first annual conference on October 16-17, 2024. This two-day event will bring together experts from academia, industry, and government to delve into the latest developments, challenges, and opportunities in climate risk and response. More details on the event program are available through the registration links below.    Day 1: Early Career Researchers Workshop 🧑🔬   Kick off the conference with an Early Career Researchers Workshop. This is a unique opportunity to learn about interdisciplinary research, gain evidence-based insights, and network with peers and leading professionals in the field.    🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/gQqX3V5m   Day 2: Industry Forum 💼   On the second day, join us for an Industry Forum where leading experts will share real-world experiences, innovations, and strategies for addressing climate risk. Speakers include UNSW Vice-President of Societal Impact, Equity & Engagement Professor Verity Firth, Minister for Emergency Management & Minister for Cities Jenny McAllister, Climate Scientist Professor Andrew Pitman, AO, FAA, ICRR Director Professor Ben Newell, Jillian Broadbent, Director of Macquarie Group and a Board Member of the Lowy Institute, and more!   🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/g4RFVR9V   We hope to see you there!

Yesterday, Professor Lisa Alexander and our lead knowledge broker, Angela Kaplish, represented the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes at the UNSW showcase held at the Australian Parliament House in Canberra. The showcase highlighted how UNSW’s research supports Australia’s policy priorities across a range of research areas including weather and climate extremes. The event kicked off with a series of a short talks by Members of Parliaments and leading academics. Guests then had the opportunity to engage in dynamic discussions with experts from different areas. The event provided an opportunity to meet politicians, including Senator Zali Steggall OAM MP, and discuss our research around climate extremes. We also distributed some of our key material including briefing notes - explainers on the foundational topics of climate science (more on that here: https://lnkd.in/gyFSjtv3), and our State of the Weather and Climate Extremes 2023 report, which summarises significant extreme weather and climate events across Australia in 2023 (read our report here: https://lnkd.in/gXekRmif). Reflecting on the event, Angela Kaplish described it as a great success, emphasizing how it helped highlight the value of collaboration between academia and policymakers. “It was great to see bi-partisan support for university research and the positive connections that can be formed between researchers and decision-makers, particularly in the climate space,” she said. UNSW UNSW Science

In their new article, Dr. Tanya Fiedler, Prof. Andrew Pitman, AO, FAA, Prof. Ben Newell, and Dr. Michael Gross explore how 'storylines' could help make business decisions in the face of climate uncertainty. The most common way to explore our future climate is by using global or regional climate models. These have proven extraordinarily valuable to simulate how our climate will change due to increases in greenhouse gases. They can project how temperature, rainfall, winds, fire risk and even hail risk are likely to change in future. But projections are by definition uncertain. This uncertainty tends to increase as you zoom in on specific locations and focus on extremes. Navigating climate uncertainty can be challenging, especially when making decisions. This is where 'storylines' can be useful. These narrative frameworks were developed to describe uncertain physical climate futures. They integrate valuable information from climate model projections with other types of evidence relevant to a location, to create a plausible and useful narrative about what the future might hold. In doing so, they have the potential to make an uncertain future more tangible than numbers, and thereby better aid with planning and decision-making. Read the full story here: https://lnkd.in/gGNBmhRd

Why was Australia very dry in November 2020 and wet in November 2021, despite both years featuring a La Niña? A new study led by CSIRO and co-authored by Dr Doug Richardson from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes examined rainfall and temperature anomalies in November 2020 and November 2021. Both years experienced La Niña conditions. While November 2021 aligned with typical La Niña conditions - wet and cool, November 2020 departed from expectations and was dry and warm. The team of researchers found that these differences were linked to changes in the path of storms over Australia. Dr Doug Richardson, postdoctoral researcher at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, said: "In 2021, there was a strong jet stream that steered weather systems over the continent. In 2020, the jet stream was instead well to the south, meaning rainfall systems bypassed us." Dr Richardson further explained that these differences in the path of the jet stream were partly due to the location of large temperature contrasts between warm and cool air, which in turn were driven by prevailing weather conditions. While climate drivers play an important role in influencing rainfall, the study shows that they are sometimes confounded by changes in weather patterns, which means that our expectations of a wet month or season don’t always play out. "This work highlights that a variety of factors can play a part in upsetting our usual expectations of the impacts of El Niño or La Niña," said Richardson. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gBKfkwBb Carly Tozer James Risbey Michael Pook Didier Monselesan Damien Irving Nandini Ramesh Dr Doug Richardson #newresearch #LaNina #climatescience

In a recent study, climate scientists from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Monash University found drought to be a major source of fire risk in Australia under climate change. Dr Hien Bui, along with co-authors Dr. Yi-Xian Li, and A/Prof Dietmar Dommenget, explored how the modified Fosberg Fire Weather Index (FWI) – a proxy for fire weather – changed under climate change, particularly during the different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) known as the El Niño and La Niña. They found a substantial increase in FWI, which they attributed to increased drought conditions with climate change. This effect was particularly important in Northern Australia during La Niña. Dr Hien Bui, the lead author of the study and a research fellow at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, said:  “We show a potential increase in FWI under global warming, suggesting a higher chance of fires in the future. Our analysis reveals that drought is the main factor contributing to this fire weather condition anomaly.” “The increase in drought during La Niña due to global warming could lead to more fires in the central-northern regions of Australia. This is a significant finding that demands attention and action to mitigate the potential impact.” The study is accessible here: https://lnkd.in/gevdEU6f A summary can be found here: https://lnkd.in/grHyyGUu #research #climatescience #wildfires https://lnkd.in/grHyyGUu

Dr Negin Nazarian has been awarded the 2024 NSW Young Tall Poppy Science Award in recognition of her research and outreach work in the field of urban climatology. Negin is a Scientia Senior Lecturer in the School of Built Environment at UNSW, Chief Investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and The ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather. She also leads the Climate-Resilient Cities (CRC) research lab, a multidisciplinary group focused on pressing challenges of urban climate, particularly urban heat exposure and ventilation. Her research focuses on the interactions between the built environment and climate systems. She aims to understand the negative effects of urban heat and propose strategies to mitigate them. “By studying the interactions between urban design and climate change, I help identify those most affected by heat and propose interventions to reduce these impacts,” Negin was quoted as saying by the UNSW website. Negin was named a Young Tall Poppy for her research excellence and commitment to promoting understanding and engagement in science. “This recognition motivates me to continue bridging the gap between scientific research and public understanding, ensuring my work has a positive and lasting impact on society.” #researchexcellence #award

In her new article, Dr Sanaa Hobeichi from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes comments on the NeuralGCM model, a new system for forecasting weather and predicting future climate using artificial intelligence. The model was developed by a team of researchers from Google, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is said to offers enormous “computational savings” and can “enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system”. At its core, NeuralGCM is what is called a “general circulation model”. It contains a mathematical description of the physical state of Earth’s atmosphere, and it solves complicated equations to predict what will happen in the future. However, NeuralGCM also uses machine learning – a process of searching out patterns and regularities in vast troves of data – for some less well-understood physical processes, such as cloud formation. The hybrid approach makes sure that the output of the machine learning modules will be consistent with the laws of physics. The resulting model can then be used for making forecasts of weather days and weeks in advance, as well as looking months and years ahead for climate predictions. The researchers compared NeuralGCM against other models using a standardised set of forecasting tests called WeatherBench 2. For three- and five-day forecasts, NeuralGCM did about as well as other machine-learning weather models such as Pangu and GraphCast. For longer-range forecasts, over ten and 15 days, NeuralGCM was about as accurate as the best existing traditional models. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/ef5rA8yr #ai #weather #climate The Conversation Australia + NZ

How do knowledge brokers bridge the gap between climate scientists and decision-makers? Government and industry are responding at speed to the climate crisis. As decision-makers formulate a range of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, they inevitably engage with climate science on a variety of levels. However, creating effective policies based on the ‘best available science’ isn’t always easy. For example, decision-makers sometimes find it hard to determine the usefulness of research findings. By working at the interface of researchers and policy-makers, knowledge brokers facilitate engagement and communication between the two parties, achieving improved outcomes for all. In our new briefing note (web version is accessible here:https://lnkd.in/gqWiGsZM), we explore some ways they accomplish this, which include: - Helping researchers understand non-academic audiences and disseminate their research using appropriate communication. Translating scientific research into “plain English” is a major part of the knowledge brokering role. - Providing reliable sources of information trusted by researchers as well as stakeholders. - Facilitating and engaging in the co-design of targeted research or informing the academic community of possible research questions or novel applications of research findings. - Helping decision-makers draw appropriate conclusions from climate information. - Helping stakeholders identify sources of uncertainty - such as assumptions made in climate simulations or constraints in computing power. Learn more about how knowledge brokers improve understanding across the scientist/decision-maker relationship here: https://lnkd.in/gqWiGsZM As the climate crisis unfolds and policy responses gather pace, knowledge brokers can bring decision makers and climate scientists together to understand and appreciate the fundamentals and behaviour of the climate system. This will help apply relevant policy responses more effectively on the scale required. Angela Kaplish Georgina Harmer Alice Wilson Paola Petrelli Andrew Pitman, AO, FAA