BMI Country Risk & Industry Analysis

The CDU is expected to win Germany's snap elections on February 23, likely forming a coalition with the SPD. However, differing economic policies between the CDU/CSU and SPD could lead to policy gridlock, making it difficult to address Germany's economic challenges. While immediate market impacts are expected to be limited, the potential for significant economic reform remains uncertain, with ongoing political and social tensions in the background. Key View • We expect the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to retake the Chancellorship in snap elections taking place on February 23. • The CDU holds a strong lead in polls, and we believe that the most likely partnership to achieve a majority in the Bundestag will be with the Social Democratic Party (SPD). • While political risks are likely to be muted, we believe that the new government will face difficult decisions and compromises in order to find solutions to kick-start feeble German economic growth. Read the full article here: https://ow.ly/se6X50UMSAi #ConnectedThinking #Germany #Elections

Chiedza Madzima, Head of Operational Risk and John Ashbourne, Global EM Economist recently had the pleasure of sharing our views at the Dubai Chamber of Commerce "New Horizons" In focus event https://ow.ly/XBKZ50UPkUp. They presented regional overviews, market growth outlook, trade analysis, business environment, key pro-FDI reforms, as well as highlighting key sectors, including trade, retail, and e-commerce growth. The presentation prompted a lively discussion with the audience, and it was great to continue the conversations and connect with the attendees afterward. Learn more about how BMI's Country Risk & Industry Research can help you to anticipate risks and opportunities across global markets https://ow.ly/EzR050UPlmS #ConnectedThinking #NewHorizons #Macroeconomics #IndustryInsight

Mark Rosenberg and Iris Malone, PhD explain how GeoQuant measures key forces behind “MAGA politics” and how this is part of a broader ‘EM-ification’ trend in Developed Markets. The discussion includes how these risks evolved during the first #Trump administration, GeoQuant's forecasts for the second administration, and the signposts to watch for that could change these forecasts. Register here: https://ow.ly/BfUO50UPkwy #ConnectedThinking #Geopolitics #Politics #DataScience

The US data center landscape is set for transformation with the AI Infrastructure Leadership Act, accelerating growth in Tier 1 sub-markets. Federal Land availability opens new opportunities for large-scale data center development. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/r2Qj50ULuPk #ConnectedThinking #InformationTechnology #AIInfrastructure

Delve into our latest analysis on Latin America's macro key themes for 2025. With a steady regional growth forecast, the year promises intriguing underlying trends. Discover how Argentina's recovery and Mexico's challenges shape the region's economic landscape. Read more: https://ow.ly/hZNp50UJzT2 #ConnectedThinking #LatinAmerica #KeyThemes

Join Ramona Moubarak, Mariette Kas-Hanna and Samer Talhouk, for our first quarterly webinar of 2025, exploring the five key themes shaping the Middle East & North Africa region this year! From OPEC+ dynamics to Egypt’s economic recovery and the potential resolution of conflicts in the Levant, we’ll delve into these topics through the lens of geopolitical risks and political stability. Register here: https://ow.ly/4Y0950UNLjo #ConnectedThinking #Geopolitics #EconomicRecovery #MiddleEast #OPEC

Qatar's economic growth is set to accelerate to 2.6% in 2025, driven by increased investment and hydrocarbon output. Despite challenges, both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon sectors are expected to see stronger performance. Read the full article: https://ow.ly/wI1r50ULuMv #ConnectedThinking #Qatar

Join our Consumer Analysts as they explore the resurgence in global consumer spending, fueled by easing inflation and robust markets in Asia and the GCC. Discover the pivotal role of AI, circularity, and private label trends, alongside dynamic shifts in the food & drinks sector. Register here: https://ow.ly/iv8550UNEG2 #ConnectedThinking #Consumer #Retail #ConsumerTrends #RetailInnovation #FoodAndDrink #MarketInsights

Explore the first #BestofBMI edition of 2025, which highlights the key themes we expect to shape the year ahead, along with recent political developments in Syria and Europe and their global implications. Additionally, we provide insights into the recent 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference, examining the Article 6 agreement and what to anticipate for the future of environmental alliances and pledges. To stay ahead with the latest political, economic, and industry insights, subscribe now to receive the next edition. #ConnectedThinking #CountryRisk #Oil&Gas #Global

Join our Banking Industry analyst as they outline the key themes in banking for 2025. As we move into the new year, banks worldwide will encounter both challenges and opportunities influenced by political, regulatory, and monetary policy changes. 🔑 Key transitions and themes we'll explore include: • The ongoing pivot towards monetary easing among major central banks, impacting profitability, balance sheet growth, and asset quality. • Navigating regulatory uncertainty surrounding enhanced Basel capital requirements. • Potential for consolidation and M&A activity across various markets. • Continued effects of real estate market turmoil in key banking sectors. • Opportunities for cost savings and competitiveness through digitalisation, particularly in underbanked emerging markets. Register here: https://ow.ly/Q7K250UMyzl #ConnectedThinking #Banking #Digitalisation #MonetaryPolicy #BaselIII #ClimateRisk