Ever since the rise of Narendra Modi on the national scene in 2014, his personal leadership has attracted voters to the BJP on a considerable scale.
The electoral strategy of the BJP (and the NDA) in the 2024 polls was to make Mr. Modi’s leadership the face of their campaign. The candidates of the alliance highlighted the fact that the vote was not for them but fora third term for Prime Minister Modi. Mr. Modi campaigned throughout the country not merely for BJP candidates but also for its allies. The Opposition alliance was careful to not make this election a leadership fight and, consciously did not declare a Prime Ministerial face. The Lokniti-CSDS data indicates the possible impact of the leadership factor in the 2024 polls in shaping the electoral outcome.
Fading popularity
Even when there was no clear contest between leaders from the two alliances, Mr. Modi remained in the lead as voters’ choice to become Prime Minister. A little over four of every 10 respondents (41%) stated that their preferred prime ministerial choice was Narendra Modi. Rahul Gandhi was mentioned by a little over one-fourth (27%) of respondents as their preferred choice (See Table 1).
It may be important to record that the question on preferred prime ministerial choice has been asked during earlier elections also. This time around, there was a six-percentage point decline in the mention of Narendra Modi as the prime ministerial choice as compared to 2019. The gap between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi as the preferred prime ministerial choice has fallen by eight percentage points. A decade ago, the gap was twenty-two percentage points (Table 2).
Was there any impact of the prime ministerial preference in the decision on voting? Six of every 10 respondents (60%) reported that it had an impact on the voting decision. Three fourths of the respondents who reported voting for the BJP mentioned that it had an impact with as high as four of every 10 saying that it had a great impact. In the case of BJP allies, six of every 10 said that this factor had an impact and one fourth said it had a great impact.
The impact of the leadership factor in determining voter preference was much less among those who voted for the Congress and its allies. Half the respondents who voted for Congress (and a slightly higher percentage in the case of the allies) said that the prime ministerial preference impacted their choice. (Table 3).
The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll surveys have been tapping the response to whether there would have been any change in voting preference if Narendra Modi was not the prime ministerial candidate. When this question was asked in 2014, a little over one-fourth (27%) of those who said that they voted for the BJP said that they would have changed the way they voted. In 2019, one-third (32%) took this stand. This time around the survey indicates that among those who voted for the BJP, one fourth (25%) said that they would have changed the way they voted if Mr. Modi was not the prime ministerial candidate. The numbers have fallen by six percentage points.
Thus, even though the BJP made it a Modi-centred campaign, close to six of every 10 (56%) of those who said that they voted for the BJP said that they would have continued to vote for the same party even if Narendra Modi were not the prime ministerial candidate. Clearly, the initial ability of the Modi factor to make voters move to the BJP seems to have stagnated over the decade.
Sandeep Shastri is Director-Academics, NITTE Education Trust and the National Coordinator of the Lokniti Network.
