Voters often support the parties in the expectation of getting particular services, and when governments fail to fulfil these expectations, these voters turn to alternative appeals. At times, when governments fulfil those promises, the voters reward those parties handsomely. This time around, the 2024 results indicate, that in pockets the incumbent central government has been rewarded by the voters, leading them to vote in favour of the BJP-led NDA government. Are there historic patterns where a ruling party/coalition receives support (and in this case the coalition has secured a majority) based on what is perceived as satisfactory performance? The CSDS-Lokniti post poll survey 2024, sought to understand these issues from the voter’s perspectives.
Post-poll survey | Methodology
Patterns over the years
Historically, when voters were satisfied with the performance of incumbent governments, they were often re-elected, barring the notable exception of 2004, where despite reasonably high levels of support, the incumbent government lost the elections. In 2014, when the voters were dissatisfied with the work of the UPA government, it was reflected in more than half of the respondents (54%) being unwilling to give the alliance another chance. As a result, NDA came to power. Conversely, in 2009, under the Congress led – UPA regime, more than half of the respondents (55%) opined that the government deserved another chance. Similarly, in 2019 a little less than half the respondents (47%) favoured a second chance for the incumbent ruling party. In both pre and post-poll survey of 2024, (44% & 46% respectively), little less than half of the respondents have indicated that the BJP led- NDA should be given be given another chance. (Table 1).
Why did the ruling coalition secure a majority?
There are several reasons why the NDA coalition was given another chance. Data from the post poll survey indicates that for those who supported the NDA, the predominant reasons include government’s development work, effective leadership, good governance and impactful welfare schemes. In particular, one-fifth of the respondents have indicated Modi’s leadership as one of the prime reasons for choosing the NDA again, a proportion that nearly doubled since the pre-poll. While strong leadership is a significant, the lack of viable alternatives also played a role, with five per cent of voters chose the NDA government due to lack of good option as alternatives. Development (21%) and good governance (15%) also fared equally well in the minds of about one in every five voters. Another one in every ten voters said that the incumbent government had good policies and welfare schemes (11%). (Table 2).
Lingering discontent
Despite the factors that propelled an NDA majority, issues like unemployment, inflation, falling incomes, and corruption remain unaddressed by the incumbent government. These issues significantly discouraged the voters to support the current dispensation. For instance, unemployment, was a significant issue for one in every third voter during the pre-poll in April 2024 (32%). However, during
the campaign, possibly on account of the promises of employment resonated with voters, reducing this proportion to 27 percent in the post-poll. Concerns regarding inflation too flared up by 10 percentage points from April (pre-poll – 20%) to the post-poll (30%). (Table 3).
The decision to give a majority to the NDA reveals a bag of mixed perceptions. Satisfaction with the NDA’s performance led many to give it another chance, while discontent shows that voters have exercised restraint, by not giving the BJP a clear majority on its own.
(The authors are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS)
