In a bipolar contest between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Indian National Democratic, Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in Bihar, the former (ruling alliance) performed quite well by securing about 47% of votes and 75% of seats (30 out of 40 seats). In a tough fight, the NDA managed to hold its ground.
Even so, it suffered a loss both in terms of vote and seat share as compared with the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Its vote share dipped by six percentage points, which translated into a loss of nine seats. Though the vote share of the Opposition INDIA bloc rose by six percentage points, it could add only eight more seats to what it had obtained in 2019. As a result, a huge gap in poll outcomes remained.
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What helped the NDA to hold its ground? The post-poll survey data reveal that there was a great deal of optimism among voters. For instance, about six in 10 (58%) respondents held that the financial condition of their households had improved during the past five years. Eight in 10 respondents said they were satisfied with their current financial condition. About an equal number of respondents (79%) asserted that they had received free ration. All this helped shape a positive image of the ruling alliance among most voters.
State or Centre?
As many as two-thirds (64%) of the respondents expressed their satisfaction with the performance of the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre. In the view of a majority of respondents (59%), the BJP-led NDA government deserved another chance. However, and quite interestingly, when asked to differentiate which government’s work — State or Union government — mattered more while deciding which party to vote for, about one-fourth (24%) of the respondents said that it was the work done by the State. The number for the Centre was six percentage points less (18%). This difference not only underscores the continued popularity of Nitish Kumar as an administrator but also his remarkable ability, as a politician, to take his loyal supporters to whichever side of the political divide he chooses to work with.
Data indicate that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led alliance increased its vote share across the social spectrum. However, its gain among the Scheduled Castes is impressive. This is despite the Lok Janshakti Party and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) being on the other side. Given the demographic weight of the SCs, this is indeed a significant gain for the Opposition alliance.
The NDA, powered by a positive rating of the so-called “double-engine” government, held its ground. The Opposition alliance failed to significantly enhance its seats. Yet, there is a silver lining to it. It appears to have significantly gained among the subgroups which have largely been voting for the NDA for almost two decades.
Sanjeer Alam is Associate Professor at CSDS and Rakesh Ranjan teaches political Science at Patna University
Published - June 08, 2024 02:59 am IST
