Once again, as in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Indian National Congress, swept the 2024 polls in Kerala, winning 18 out of 20 seats (19 seats in 2019). For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), opening its account in Lok Sabha elections in the State, was a historic achievement. The Left Democratic Front (LDF), won just one seat, as was the case the last time around.
The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll study shows a strong anti-incumbency wave against the Union government. In the study, seven of every 10 (70%) of the respondents said that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government should not be given another chance.
Focus on work
The 2024 Lok Sabha election was considered, by the people of Kerala, more as a direct contest between the UDF and NDA, given their potential to form the government. Rahul Gandhi was the preferred Prime Ministerial choice of over one-third (35%) of the respondents while a little less than one-fourth (23%) of them favoured Narendra Modi. More than half the respondents opposed the arrest of Opposition leaders and believed that it was done for political reasons.
Similarly, while deciding which party to vote for, one-fourth (26%) of the respondents considered the work done by the Union government, while another one-fourth (24%) looked at the work of the State government.
However, one-third (32%) of the respondents believe the work of both the Union and State governments were kept in mind when deciding on who to vote for. It means the strong presence of an anti-incumbency wave against the Centre and the State government helped the Congress-led alliance.
Voting patterns
The increase in BJP’s vote share was made possible by a slight change in the demographic voting patterns. Close to a majority from among the Nairs (45%) voted for the BJP/NDA. The Ezhava community, the leading Hindu caste group in Kerala that traditionally supports the LDF, also moved to the BJP (32%). This adversely effected the LDF’s election prospects. Moreover, for the first time, 5% of the Christian minority voted for the BJP. Despite these shifts, the UDF retained its traditional vote share of Muslims, Christians and other caste groups, which helped it to secure 18 seats.
K.M. Sajad Ibrahim is Professor, Department of Political Science, and Dean, Faculty of the Social Sciences, University of Kerala and Nithya N.R. is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Kerala
