CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: BJP maintains advantage among young voters

Published - June 07, 2024 01:35 am IST

 A BJP supporter waves the party flag on June 4, 2024 in Bengaluru.

A BJP supporter waves the party flag on June 4, 2024 in Bengaluru. | Photo Credit: Getty Images

In a country as large and diverse as India, voter choices, especially of the youth (under 25 years) can be a Pandora’s box requiring careful unpacking and understanding. Their votes can be the deciding factor in closely contested races, making them a key target for political parties. So, how did the youth vote this time around?

In 2019, 20% of young voters supported the Congress. This figure increased by just one percentage point in 2024, indicating no significant consolidation of youth support for the Congress. In contrast, the BJP received substantial youth support in 2019, with 40% of young voters backing them, a clear pattern that stood them apart from the older voters. In 2024, the BJP’s youth support saw only a slight decline, decreasing by one percentage point among those under 25 and two percentage points among those aged 26-35. (Table 1).

This raises the question: How was the Congress able to challenge the BJP, and what role did the youth play? In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, 21% of young voters supported the Congress, while 39% voted for the BJP and nearly 7% for BJP allies. Together NDA stood at 46% vote share amongst the youth. However, what helped the INDIA alliance was that 12% of young voters supported Congress allies, far more than the BJP allies (7%), helping close the gap in voter share between the NDA and the INDIA (Table 2).

In summary, while the BJP was able to maintain its youth support without receiving a strong dent, the Congress and its allies have made notable gains among young voters. More importantly, while the share of Congress and its allies among voters of different age groups is rather flat, in the case of the BJP, it declines with higher age — meaning that the BJP continues to attract voters of young age more than the elderly.

Sanjay Kumar is Professor and co-director Lokniti-CSDS) and Fuhaar Bandhu is a researcher at Lokniti CSDS

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