In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the gap between the poor and the rich with regard to their support for the BJP was very wide — that is, more among the rich and middle class voted for the BJP compared to the those belonging to the poor and lower class. But in 2024, this gap has narrowed significantly. This is mainly because of the steady rise in the vote of the poor in favour of BJP.
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The findings of the Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey indicate that even if the BJP fell short of a majority in the 2024 general elections, a significant proportion of the economically weaker classes voted for it. Among the poor, 37% voted for the BJP while 21% chose the Congress. However, the BJP’s allies secured a much lower proportion of support from the poor (6%). In comparison, the Congress’ allies secured 14% of the votes from the poor.
Similarly, the BJP secured 35% of the votes from those belonging to the lower class, which is 13% points higher than what the Congress got. The BJP maintained an almost similar lead over the Congress in terms of votes secured from the middle class. The BJP secured the highest proportion of votes (41%) from the upper class.
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Compared to 2019, there has been a dip of 3 points in the proportion of those from the upper class (from 44% to 41%) who voted for the BJP. A smaller decline of 3 points is also visible in the support that the BJP got from the middle class. Among the lower class, 35% voted for the BJP this time compared to 36% in the previous election. It is noteworthy that since 2014, the BJP has seen a steady rise in votes from the poor. The share has risen to 37% in 2024 from 24% in 2014.
Looked at from a different angle, in 2014, the BJP polled a higher share of votes (38%) among the rich compared to its overall vote of 31% resulting in a skew in its electoral support. This time, while the higher share from the rich continues, its share among the poor and lower economic classes is almost the same as its overall vote share. Thus, the skew has moderated. The various welfare schemes of the ruling government, especially free ration for large proportions of the poor, have worked in favour of the BJP.
This data means that the Congress has not acquired additional support in spite of its specific appeal to the economically lower strata of society. There is a flatness to support for the Congress across economic classes.
Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Co-director Lokniti-CSDS and Jenitta is a researcher at Lokniti CSDS