In the long run, the outcome of the Lok Sabha election in Tamil Nadu may have tremendous significance for the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) foray into the politics of the State. However, in the immediate context, there seems to be limited gain for the BJP in terms of seats.
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For a State where politics has been strictly divided between the two Dravidian parties, the BJP’s success this time represents a major shift.
Possibilities ahead
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance managed a sweep with 39 seats, and this ensured that the BJP remained firmly away from a clear majority in the Lok Sabha. Thus, in a paradoxical outcome, Tamil Nadu both stalled the BJP and also opened up possibilities for it.
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This achievement by the BJP was partly possible because the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) vacated the space to challenge the DMK-led coalition.
In its determination to breach the State’s bipolarity, the BJP ensured that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would repeatedly visit the State and enhance the efforts of the State unit led by K. Annamalai. Over the past two years, Mr. Annamalai’s “En Mann En Makkal Yatra” (My Land, My People Yatra) took the BJP across nearly every Assembly constituency.
Wide outreach
As the CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey shows, during the campaign for the Lok Sabha election, the BJP aggressively reached out to voters through phone calls, text messages, social media.
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Compared with all other contesting parties, the BJP’s outreach was the largest as reported by the respondents; more than 60% said that they had been contacted by the BJP through social media and 46% said they were contacted through door-to-door campaign.
However, whether the BJP will be able to make a dent in the State’s politics remains an open question because it has not been able to win over any particular social segment.
As of now, the post-poll survey suggests that the BJP’s electoral support is spread uniformly across the upper castes, the OBCs, and even Dalits.
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With the help of its allies, including the Congress, the DMK has been able to retain a substantial chunk of all social sections in this election. In other words, despite its dramatic success in polling double-digit vote percentage, the BJP has not been able to force any drastic reconfiguration of social forces as yet.
It is possible that the BJP gained mainly through the slight erosion of the bipolarity of the State. It remains to be seen if the entry of the BJP ends the bipolar competition in the State or if the BJP gradually eases out the AIADMK and positions itself as a major player in State politics.
The authors are researchers at CSDS-Lokniti